April national economic operation improves the transmission of employment pressure across the country

April national economic operation improves the transmission of employment pressure across the country
The National Bureau of Statistics said that there is confidence to achieve economic recovery, but there are still uncertainties.Getting better.However, the National Bureau of Statistics pointed out that the current overseas epidemic situation is still spreading and the domestic economic recovery is still facing many challenges.  Investment in the three major industries picked up last month.In the first 4 months, investment in the primary industry dropped by 5.4%, investment in the secondary industry fell by 16%, and investment in the tertiary industry dropped by 7.8%, the decline was narrower than that in the first quarter and the first quarter.4, 5.9 and 5.7 averages.At the same time, infrastructure investment fell by 11 each year.8%, manufacturing investment fell by 18.8%, real estate development investment only fell by 3.3%, the decline was narrower than the first quarter quarter.9, 6.4 and 4.4 averages.  Pan Xiangdong, chief economist of New Era Securities, said that the decline in fixed asset investment narrowed in April and the three major sub-mergers improved, especially the monthly growth rate of real estate and infrastructure investment rose to 6 respectively.9%, 4.8%, first of all, after the epidemic situation improved, the construction industry rushed to speed up, coupled with the extremely loose monetary policy and the increase in fiscal policy, the monthly growth rate of this investment returned to a relatively normal level.  ”Subsequently, as the land completion project is still a two-digit decline, under the pressure of housing delivery, the construction intensity of housing companies will increase, and the interest rate of housing loans will decline steadily under overlapping currency easing to stimulate demand for housing purchases. It is expected that the actual investment growth rate will continue to be repaired.With the issuance of special debt scale and subsequent financial policy support, the new infrastructure is gradually advancing, and it is expected that the repair of infrastructure investment is still a relatively certain clue.”Pan Xiangdong thinks.  It is worth noting that, despite the impact of the epidemic on investment, in the first four months of high-tech manufacturing, investment in computer and office equipment manufacturing still increased15.4%.In the high-tech service industry, investment in transformation of scientific and technological achievements, e-commerce services, and professional technical services also increased by 28% and 25, respectively.6%, 12.5%, which shows that the transition period from the high-speed economy of the developing countries to the expected development has shown certain results.  In the first four months, online retail sales have turned from falling to rising as one of the “troikas” driving the economy, and consumption has also picked up.In April, the social zero constant reached 2.82 trillion, down 7 every year.5%, the decline is narrower than that of March8.3 averages.  The basic living commodities grew rapidly. In April, among the retail sales of units above designated size, grains, oils, foods and beverages increased year by year.2% and 12.9%.The sales of consumption-upgrading commodities improved. In April, communications equipment and cultural office supplies increased by 12 respectively.2% and above 6.5%, 5 faster than March respectively.7 and 0.4 averages.  From January to April, the national online retail sales amounted to about 3.07 trillion yuan, an annual increase of 1.7%, compared with a decrease of 0 in the first quarter.8%.  Liu Aihua, director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that although the trend of consumption return is still facing certain challenges, this pressure will still be caused on the consumption side.The gradual return of China ‘s consumption environment is gradually improving; in the long run, the momentum of consumption recovery is also conditionally sustained.  Fu Yifu, a senior expert from Suning Financial Research Institute, said that the consumer market has clearly recovered in the past four months, which is manifested by the narrowing of the decline and the growth of online retail sales.This is mainly due to the continuous improvement of domestic epidemic prevention and control measures and the orderly progress of resumption of production and production in all walks of life.In addition, various consumption stimulus policies and consumer vouchers released by various provinces and cities have also achieved better results. Now, the catering and tourism industry has gradually improved, and it can also promote the zero-scale recovery of the society.The online retail performance is eye-catching. This is because the epidemic has become a “touch-screen” for consumers. The e-commerce, live broadcast, and takeaway have developed with a deviation. In addition, the continuous improvement in the sales of consumer upgrades also shows that Chinese consumptionThe upgrade was previously stopped due to the epidemic, which is also worth the participants.  ”I think that the current consumption of catering, tourism, shopping and movie theaters has started one after another, and the market as a whole has continued to pick up, but it is unlikely that there will be retaliatory consumption, more of it is repairing consumption.”Fu Yifu said.  The accelerated recovery of live streaming services in the service industry is the attraction of a decline in the national service industry production index in April4.5%, lower than the zero social spending of that month7.5% decline in ten years.The production indices of transportation, warehousing and postal services, wholesale and retail industries, and accommodation and catering industries declined twice.0%, 6.6%, 33.7%, which is 9% less than that in March.7, 8.1 and 15.4 averages.  Liu Aihua explained that the service industry is a multi-faceted industry. Not only is there contact, clustered service consumption, many services are also reflected in information technology-based services, so that online education and remote office in the process of responding to the impact of the epidemic, not onlyInstead of being affected by the epidemic, it has promoted the development of these industries.”I think this can also explain to a certain extent that the improvement of the service industry production index is better than that of retail.”During the epidemic, live broadcasts brought goods to become a new hot spot.”The Vice Minister of Commerce Wang Bingnan introduced at a press conference on May 8 that during the” May Day “, the number of e-commerce live broadcasts and the number of live broadcast products doubled and 4 respectively.7 times.  The unemployment rate in the urban survey in April was 6%. However, even the main economic indicators improved in April, and the unemployment rate is still rising.From January to April, there were 354 new jobs in cities and towns across the country, an increase of 105 from the same period last year.In April, the number of unemployed persons surveyed in cities and towns nationwide decreased by 6%, up by 0 from March.1 average.  Liu Aihua said that the unemployment rate in the urban survey in April reached 6%, which is one sample higher than the surveyed unemployment rate in the same period last year, indicating that the employment pressure is indeed relatively high.  ■ Looking ahead, how will the Chinese economy go?  The market is concerned about the overall expansion of the Chinese economy in the second quarter.Liu Aihua said that we do have the conditions, the foundation, the confidence, and the confidence to achieve sustained economic recovery and improvement.However, there are indeed relatively large uncertainties and uncertainties, so we still have to stick to the bottom line thinking, seize the favorable conditions in the economic operation to play the inherent advantages, release the potential of domestic demand, and help companies to overcome the current difficulties.Achieve a full return of the economy to normal.  Liu Aihua said that the economy is recovering and improving for two consecutive months in March and April, which also reflects the growth of economic growth, and also adds more confidence to further increase the macro hedging policy and further promote the resumption of production.From the perspective of some leading indicators, it is only that the total investment of newly-started projects in investment from January to April has changed from negative to positive, from a previous decline of 22% to an increase of 1.1%, indicating that our investment project reserves and capital guarantees have improved; from the perspective of electricity consumption, industrial electricity consumption has turned positive in 4 months. The latest monitoring results in early May showed that the increase in electricity consumptionContinued to rebound slightly.Judging from these leading indicators, the momentum of sustained economic recovery and improvement of our economy is conditional and based.  ”From a domestic perspective, the epidemic prevention and control has achieved significant strategic results, but from the perspective of economic prospects, this recovery momentum has not yet returned to a comprehensive normal level, employment pressure is still relatively large, and there are still many difficulties in production and operationThere are still many risk challenges.”Liu Aihua said.